Escalating Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Raises Concerns of Military Confrontation

Growing concerns exist over the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

In 1998, a military clash started in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

In the face of continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to short statements on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea labeling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on recently that attempts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Region

There have been no reports of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The leader of personnel division of the armed forces, the officer, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two endorsed a statement that the hostilities was concluded – a action that won Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet ties have later worsened anew.